Tuesday, October 6, 2009

What type of economic curve?


Economists groping for a way to explain the shape of the current recession are suggesting that we may be on the verge of a less frequent pattern -- that instead of the normal "V-curve" or "U-curve" pattern for a recession (a simple rebound pattern) that we may be heading into a "W-curve" recession (referring to the possibility that after an initial recovery, our economy will head back down again in a "double dip" scenario). The United States arguably endured that type of "W-curve" in 1949, and then again between 1980 and 1982. The Great Depression of the 1930's featured several mini recessions along the way, including a W-curve mini-recession in 1932-1933. (See image above).

Then there's the more discouraging possibility of an "L-curve" recession similar to the one suffered by Japan in the 1990's after its real estate and equity bubbles burst.

What I haven't seen is persuasive analysis of how these various letter-shaped recessions could affect American politics differently. If the Obama Administration is anticipating a "W-curve" recession, will that influence its choice of economic policies, and if so how?

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